takeover offer for 66 cents per share, page-8

66 Cent ist a joke. It is not 1% of the NPV

66 cents = $193m takeover

$193m divided by 1% = $19.3 billion, which is not the NPV

potash is currently $400/t

PFS was based on $580/t

at 10% discounting, at $400/t, i get the NPV over 23 years of around $786m after tax

a 66 cent takeover is at around $25% of NPV, after tax

at $400/t and 2mpta, I get NPAT of around $310m per annum or net profit without depreciation of $360m per annum

payback on $1,800m capex will be 5 years

offer is being made at the bottom of the potash market, where prices are still forecast to go lower by some


Mosaic Beats Profit Estimate on Potash Sales at Top of Range



Bloomberg-28/03/2013

The average potash price will be $350 to $380 a ton in the fiscal fourth quarter, according to the statement. That compares with $455 a year ...