Let's do a back of the envelop calculation using a simplified dividend discount method
consensus forecast growth = 16%
analysts tend to be a bit over optimistic so lets discount the growth forcast by 25%
instead of 16% lets make it 12%
expected rate of return = 15%
dividend doesn't increase = $1.21
1.21/ (.15 - .12) = 1.21/.03 = $40.33 (similar to clime's intrinsic value
lets assume the dividend increases to $1.31 and growth goes to 10%
$1.21 / (.15 - .10) = 1.21/ .05 = $24.20
zero growth
earnings = $2.58
divi = $0.00
$2.58/.15 = $17.20
so zero growth $17.20
10% growth $24.20
12% growth $40.33
of course you could be assuming that the company will not make a profit
If so the price would go below $17
But I can't imagine that happening at this stage
Has BHP ever not made a profit?
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- intrinsic value ... $39
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$40.80

intrinsic value ... $39 , page-4
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Last
$40.80 |
Change
-0.800(1.92%) |
Mkt cap ! $207.1B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$40.86 | $41.14 | $40.66 | $305.0M | 7.481M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 1800 | $40.76 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$40.82 | 556 | 4 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 122 | 40.660 |
3 | 129 | 40.650 |
1 | 19 | 40.620 |
1 | 372 | 40.610 |
7 | 3906 | 40.600 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
40.870 | 494 | 1 |
40.910 | 500 | 1 |
40.990 | 7500 | 1 |
41.000 | 1096 | 4 |
41.050 | 293 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.13pm 25/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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