intrinsic value ... $39 , page-4

Let's do a back of the envelop calculation using a simplified dividend discount method

consensus forecast growth = 16%

analysts tend to be a bit over optimistic so lets discount the growth forcast by 25%

instead of 16% lets make it 12%

expected rate of return = 15%
dividend doesn't increase = $1.21

1.21/ (.15 - .12) = 1.21/.03 = $40.33 (similar to clime's intrinsic value

lets assume the dividend increases to $1.31 and growth goes to 10%
$1.21 / (.15 - .10) = 1.21/ .05 = $24.20


zero growth

earnings = $2.58
divi = $0.00

$2.58/.15 = $17.20


so zero growth $17.20
10% growth $24.20
12% growth $40.33

of course you could be assuming that the company will not make a profit
If so the price would go below $17
But I can't imagine that happening at this stage
Has BHP ever not made a profit?