925, the 65c is not related to earnings, its a risked valuation of three Vietnam targets based on an under sea, undiscovered basis. ie its the current (broker) valuation of the Vietnam targets.
In the event a commercial discovery or discoveries are made the risk discounts would be reduced or removed from these discoveries leading to a value greater than 65cps for the Vietnam assets. The broker valuation shows $4.35 for these same assets on an unrisked basis which is the theoretical sp the broker thinks the sp should go to if all three come in.
Typically junior oilers are valued predominantly on an asset basis until such time as they have significant production accruing to them.
You skipped a year 925, the broker estimate is for revenue of $578M in 2015. Forecast for 2014 is $20.4M. Personally I don't expect production until 2016 as it generally takes up to 3 years to get an offshore discovery to production. However Block 105 is in shallow water and as we often see in the Gulf of Mexico, shallow coastal discoveries can be brought online in less than 12 months. So perhaps 2015 is possible. Much will depend on engineering lead times and government and environmental approvals.
NEN Price at posting:
21.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held