BRU 3.49% 8.3¢ buru energy limited

Ann: Corporate Presentation , page-41

  1. 698 Posts.
    Hi Ric and others.

    Ric thanks for posting the StockAnalysis opinion. I have to say I'm kicking myself now for not reading the writing on the wall which started appearing 6 months ago (or not acting on it), and also for getting caught up in the general exuberance associated with this stock rather than realistically pondering the timeframe over which this massive project will play out.

    My fail I guess, but on the plus side:
    * The resources are still there in the ground and Buru has substantial coverage over what appear to be the most prospective areas.
    * The rig Slampoil mentioned looks good and according to the manufacturer is relatively cheap to mobilize, setup and operate. Apparently it doesn't require a crane and can be operated with fewer staff and is consequently a safer unit.
    * Buru have now pretty much acknowledged that there have been issues with the TOs. I see this as a positive as it probably means that they have made significant progress towards resolving these issues and cementing their relationships with the TOs going forward.
    * The State Agreement allows plenty of time for Buru to Cherry-Pick the sweet spots in the permits covered by this agreement.
    * The WA Government is clearly keen to assist Buru.
    * Buru have outlined the timetable for the next 2-3 years. They have a vision.
    * World crude oil production continues to decline (Peak Oil). Even if some miracle of fraccing causes an uptick in production, I expect the Ungani reservoir (and any similar discoveries) will be very profitable simply because it will be cheaper to develop than unconventional oil.
    * I agree with Slampoil's assessment of the likely Ungani recoverable volume and this pretty much underpins the current share price.
    * I would be very surprised if Ungani/Ungani-North turns out to be a one-off. Would anyone make this bet, in the vast, underexplored basin?
    * Even with no news, the shorters will be looking at covering around this level, or perhaps in the 150s.

    I think the plan will come together, with my only concern being that the State Agreement seems to require gas exports to have a separate pipeline to that of the Domgas. I'm wondering if there will be an amendment prior to this agreement going through parliament?

    In the absence of a takeover, I see the Buru story panning out over decades. Times have changed, but take a look at the SANTOS snapshot:
    . 1954. Santos formed to search for oil and gas on leases covering 860,000 square kilometres of SA and Queensland
    . 1963. Gas discovered at Gidgealpa.
    . July 1966. Moomba discovery.
    . Nov 1966. Santos signs deal to deliver gas to Adelaide.
    . February 1967. 790k Moomba-Adelaide Pipeline commissioned.
    . 1968. Construction of gas processing facilities at Moomba begins.
    . 1968. Moomba-Adelaide pipeline completed.
    . November 1969. First Gas Sales to SAGASCO.
    . 1970. First oil discovery: Tirrawarra 1, with oil flows of 650 bpd.
    . 1973. A pipeline to transport gas to NSW commences construction.
    . 1976. First gas sales to NSW
    . etc, etc

    Santos current Market Cap approx. $12 billion, approx. 1 billion shares on issue. I think Buru can do better than this. Time will tell.

    Not happy with the current SP, but happy to hold.

    Phil
 
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