jab-1 value = 91c

Ok, I've revamped my last valuation based now on free cash flows rather than profit after tax. Loan amortisation is per the prospectus.

So by discounting future free cash flow by 25% and then also reducing the price by 5% for chance of launch failure and another 5% by orbital failure you get to the 40c valuation that is the current price. This is the optionality I reckon currently built into the price.

Launch failure is based on what they're paying for the insurance premium (36m on a 611m project). Orbital failure is just my estimate... any HC members who know more of historical paterns, please post it up...

Once Jab-1's in orbit I'm then assuming a discount rate of 12% due to the relatively lower risk profile and stable income stream. You would then also remove the 5% chance of launch failure (so 87c x 1.05 = 91c).

I've added no value to additional orbital slots and potential cash flows from Jab-2 to 8. If it's launched with no dramas, then my estimate of value is $91c. Once management start releasing info regarding additional satellites then it startsto get interesting...