My model assumes quite significant growth when they release single user private licenses and single user commercial licenses which should be low cost to administer and vastly higher quantities sales.
I don't know of a sales breakdown, but there are 4 different licenses right -
1. 5 user all state - 9k pa
2. 5 user single state - 5k pa
3. enterprise all state ~ 18k pa
4. enterprise single state - 10k pa
breakdown in % terms of sales ?
1 - 30
2 - 30
3 - 30
4 - 10
which means that they have 500 full enterprise customers and so-on if you can be bothered with the maths based on a 30M sales year which is conservative imo. I don't know what sort of takeup there would be among large companies, but most mining companies would use the service, telco's would use it, investment banks would all subscribe, construction companies would subscribe, builders, developers, government arms, etc. would all use it and many of these will be slowish adopters - so that should give NEA a few years of solid growth from now.
This leaves growth from the smaller end of the market - I would say at single user, 1k license for single state per year - 10,000 per year and growth of that per year would give NEA an extra 10M per year and growing.
On top of that I would expect them to begin offering more flexible access to small users in the future that would enable use for a month in one state etc.
Then of course as mentioned there is o/s expansion which could be profitable as well. Christchurch alone would benefit greatly from this at the moment.
I am a holder, I don't think 100M is any type of ceiling for this company - I would say 200M possible at the end of the year and that would be including a takeover premium.
This information is highly valuable and if it leads to one better informed decision - this alone is worth more than the license for 5 years to many business'.
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