any ideas about where the new support level is, page-45

Gents,

this might help re market jitters and AGO price

22nd May13
http://www.news.odin.tc/index.php?page=view/article/426/Expansion-of-steel-production-capacity-prohibited-in-China

Also India's freeze on iron exports might have a bit to do with production there raising from 25MT to 75MT over the last 5yrs and planners ensuring the 40-50MT exported yearly from Goa was available to it.
Exports are expected to recommence from December after court action.
11MT 58% stocked already mined at one miner ready for export.

One particular Chinese steel plant has sold over 2MT of iron ore stocks into the local spot market.

Against this Chinese steel production up until April 13 is 10% higher than a year ago and at records.

Has this got more to do with ensuring ALL their production capacity is registered before the CAP GOES ON for each plant and company/provence.

AGO once worth $1400++ no debt and $400m NETT cash in the bank-outlook bright
then producing 6MT

NOW AGO worth $730m after $400m write-off plus $263m DEBT giving $141 NETT CASH in the bank-outlook uncertain
now producing 7.7MT???

ADD to this the decision by Port Headland in DEC 12?? that any exporter that doesn't meet its monthly export allocation will have those unused port movements spread across producers exporting over 50MT/yr for that month,means the BIG BOYS now have the ability to sweat their operations in the short term to maximize exports without increasing their port infrastructure at the cost of the little guy ramping up.
WIN/WIN for the port and the LARGE companies at capacity.
price depresser for AGO and the market.

PORT Infrastructure capital expense has just been eliminated for those incremental tons for large exporters at the same time AGO is paying dearly for each individual ton it installs,currently spending $25-30M??? for each ton of port export infrastructure capacity it adds.

At the moment that's half of AGO's HARD EARNT and COSTLY port allocation of 15MT and around 200????MT total as soon as those related miners can dig more and fill the holes.

Hence the reason why a legal challenge by one miner for rail access and why no-one will want to make it easier for any competing exporter by giving it access,while it can see itself exporting more without increased port/rail infrastructure expense.SO FORGET FRIENDLY RAIL DEALS anytime soon.

3,347,000 short sold shares-----2nd highest short sold share on the market says----bets are on for even lower.

China is also moving to ban the import of low calorific coal,used in some inefficient(read dirty) plants and power stations.This will help Indian producers as prices collapse for these coals.This coincidentally ties in with the CHINESE PREMIERS VISIT to India-19th MAY

http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Coal/26960084

http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Coal/27980984

as always DYOR+DYODD