abc to feature poh on landline, page-64

Hi Sherlock,

Thanks for your reply - I don't think ramping is going on. I consider ramping to be a conscious attempt to inflate the stock price when the poster knows they are telling a distorted story.

I do think in POH and through hotcopper in general much "religious belief" in stocks takes place. Beliefs are stated more and more loudly & those beliefs are supported by shoe-horning any fact as supporting of that belief. That is - confirmation bias. This confirmation bias is coupled with the power of a community belief (and deriding anyone who shakes that belief). c.f.: religion/cult.

I consider the pain medication to be better proven as it is on a track which has passed rigorous scientific and approval hurdles. The human drug path to approval is much clearer, and the rigour at each stage leads to statistical conclusions usually published.

The cow thing is positive. However I don't carry the same level of enthusiasm (belief?). Why? --

The main positive evidence appears to be the USDA trial. While good news I don't consider that to be wide peer-reviewed agreement on the beneficial nature. This is no different from any other research lab receiving a grant to study a new approach. In some ways it is less rigorous. The standing govt labs for both animal & human in the US do not need separate approval/funding for each research project. There is not a separate competitive grants process for this project. It simply builds on an existing line of research they were exploring anyway - a chief investigator or lab there believes in Vitamin D and has some results that indicate some success. They want to follow that line a bit further with the delivery method they think will work best. This trial is unlikely to be very expensive compared to the lab's overall budget - and simply nothing for the overall institute. They do not need this trial to work. They can afford to explore.

As such - the announcement of the USDA trial is promising, but provides little extra evidence towards true efficacy. The outcome of the trial will be far more interesting than the announcement :).