Brenid,
You are obviously an enthusiast. Let me answer your points one at a time;
1)I doubt the contracts are long term. There aren't that many customers. They are mainly the glass industry (ACI) and detergent manufacturers. I don't think they are locked in at long term fixed prices.
2) I don't think the detergent or glass manufacturers mind if the Ash is from natural sources or Solvay plants. Internationally there is one spec and one price for the commodity.
3) The banks are capitalising interest, not foregoing it. The interest is added to the bill which just compounds.
4) I agree coke and limestone usage will be small. However the cost of maintaining the huge kilns at temperature and all their hoists, bins and surrounding machinery is largely fixed despite the smaller throughput. This is not good.
5) The imported Soda Ash will be a cheaper feed stock but the added cost of CO2 from kilns will be large.
6) I don't expect there will be much more scope for natural attrition of staff. I expect they will lay off all they can now.
If I had shares I would have sold them long ago. In my opinion the longer you hold these shares the less you will get for them.
bacci
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