some avian flu considerations, page-4

warning on flu oubreak It appears that some of you are awfully happy when there is a new report of bird flu somewhere else. So I suppose you must be awfully HAPPY to hear today that there appears to be an outbreak of infected birds in Nepal, and that they have found infected birds outside Moscow. And yes, they found infected birds yesterday just outside Bangkok. Oooh YES, we must not forget to mention that ANOTHER person has actually DIED from the bird flu in Thailand. So that must assuredly push up Biota's price to AT LEAST twenty eight dollars and thirty cents!! What joy.

Against this, that horrible CIPLA company in India has decided to break the copyrights and is going to manufacture cutprice generic TAMIFLU for the poorer nations. I can well appreciate your resentment at this. How can anybody try to save lives at the expense of drug company profits? How dare they even contemplate such an action as this, which could adversely affect the companys' (Roche, Biota et al) profits and ultimately affect the SHARE PRICE?? Totally undemocratic and an action that must be totally blocked, don't you think?.

You all seem to appreciate the fact that the emergence of a human strain of the Avian flu will be the start of the process towards vaccine production. The vaccine production can only start when the virus is identified. That is a fact. How long it will take to get an effective vaccine is anybody's guess, but let us pray it won't be too long.

Unfortunately, when the new virus emerges, there is absolutely no evidencee that either Tamiflu or Relenza is going to be effective against it. There is a lot of hype about these two drugs because they are all we have now. BUT WILL THEY BE OF ANY USE AGAINST A MUTATED VIRUS? Your call is as good as mine.

However, you must remember that until now, both drugs have languished at the bottom of the list for the treatment of normal flu. Few doctors have prescribed them and few chemists have carried them. That is a fact. Ask your chemist and see for yourself. Look up the sales of both drugs prior to this and you will see what I am talking about. They even had to shut down the Australian Relenza factory for lack of demand for the drug.

Now let us assume that these drugs work and a pandemic arrives. Where are you going to get your drug prescriptions? I do not think many doctors are going to stay open and run the risk of exposing themselves and their staff to the virus, especially with the current observed mortality rate of >30% of those infected. And they wouldn't want to take the risk of taking the virus home to their families.

And a doctor's surgery will be the most contaminated of places, right from the comtaminated external door-knob at entry, to the chairs, to the air-conditioning...And you will be sitting there for an hour, maybe two, because any doctor who is willing to stay open is going to be very very busy with the workload of his collegues who have fled.

And now, when you have finally got your script and managed to get away from the guy sitting next to you who was shivering and sneezing all over the place, you have to find a chemist who is open and who has the drug. And believe you me, quite a few chemists would also have shut up shop and fled. Because nobody likes to be a dead martyr.

And all the time you are hoping that the virus has not mutated rapidly to become resistent to Tamiflu or Relenza. And you need 50 tablets to keep you hanging on till the vaccine is developed (provided the resistance has not developed). And if the resistance has developed, well, dead man walking.

And while all this is going on, the airports will be closed, the taxis won't run, the buses won't run, schools will be shut and we have to be careful of our purchases because the very money we get as change could be contaminated with the virus. If you have been watching the news, which I am sure you have been, seeing as how quickly you post each and every new outbreak and death on this site, you cannot fail to be aware how uncertain the Health Ministers and Chief Medical Officers are about everything.

And to make themselves appear decisive and to allay the public, they tell us that they have ordered 10 million Tamiflu, 20 million Relenza etc. Big deal. I hope the drugs work when they are needed.

And meanwhile, on our very doorstep, we have Indonesia. Where every household has ten birds or more and where a call to cull their birds is met with stoic defiance. You don't have to be an Einstein to see what is going to happen next.

So welcome to the brave new world, where the rich and poor will all be playing on a very level playing field. I have not had any comments from any of you on my previous postings and I expect none on this one, because it is not what you wish to hear, but I know what I am talking about, and am only writing this to you lot as a wake up call.

I can commend you to get masks, gloves and some food stashed away, hopefully never to be used. I do hope that none of you has to ever look back on this posting with any regret.

For your information, I have never owned any shares in Biota or CSL, and I am not going to be buying or selling shares in either company.