The Israelis IMO won't drop the % for export if dropping that % makes it unviable. That would be stupid.
At any rate, there are 20 Tcf of gas in Leviathan - and another 10 Tcf in Tamar (which already supplies Israel and should do so for around 25 years). There is also the potential for more discoveries, so they will have gas to spare.
And 40% of 20 Tcf is still 8 Tcf available for export. Pluto is about 5 Tcf from memory, so 8 Tcf should easily be enough, particularly with the lower costs in Israel.
Obviously the economics would be better on 12 Tcf and I honestly think the Israeli government will realise that they have more than enough gas for domestic use and a 12 Tcf LNG or export CNG plant.
Another point made in this article is that while the % of export gas might drop, the overall reserves have increased since WPL announced the farm-in. This article says the % will drop from 50% to 40%, not from 60 to 40.
At the same time the reserves have increased from 17 Tcf to 20 Tcf.
So previously, 50% of 17 Tcf = 8.5 Tcf
Now, 40% of 20 Tcf = 8 Tcf
Not a significant difference.
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