ccv over valued - share price drop to come

CCV looks over valued to me by a long shot. Management expect F13 NPAT to be "slightly" higher than F12. F12 NPAT was $29.4m so I expect F13 NPAT to be somewhere around the $31m mark. CCV had 385.4m shares on issue in Nov'12 and have raised a further 38.5m shares since via an equity raising, coming to a total of 423.9m shares. This equates to EPS for F13 of 7.3 cents or a P/E ratio of 13.4 times. This P/E would be reasonable for a company with growth expectations, but growth for CCV has fallen off a cliff since the half year. F13 H1 NPAT was $18.4m so to achieve managements estimate of ~$31m NPAT for the full year then they will only make another $12.6m of NPAT in H2 - a decline of 32% from H1. There seems to be more than just the new legislation impacting profits here. Seems Peter Cumins (director) who sold 2 million shares on 6 March also saw this profit drop coming and got a good price while he could - I'm of the same opinion and staying clear of CCV until I have more information. It just has too much downside risk at these prices. Short term we'll see a large price drop and longer term we'll have to wait and see what management do to redeem themselves and how they'll translate a growing loan book into greater profits.