"Casshed - Interested to know about the "peers' you suggest it trades better than?? Any details on those??"
Petey, glad to see you agree with my thoughts on the importance of cash flow to sp. Re your question above; If you look at the peers since the 2011 or 2012 highs, ABU has strongly outperformed most.
I see good reason for that in this market. This market is mainly interested in companies with projects that are funded AND already have economically viable projects. Strong margins will be nearly as important.
Some of the more obvious examples of poor performance that I have mentioned previously continue to underperform ABU.
I put them on my watch list when their sp’s were stronger than I would have expected in 2011. I’ve kept them there to remind me not to buy something that looks overvalued no matter how much the market likes it at the time.
AZM and NMG both operating in Africa. Both hit at least 80c in 2011. AZM is now 4c and NMG is 1.5c.
If you bought either at just half the price of their peaks you would still be close to having lost all your investment. In fact if you waited till they halved again the same would apply. NMG halved from 80c to 40c, halved again to 20c, halved again to 10c, halved again to 5c, halved again to 2.5c and nearly halved again to 1.5c.
Even if you waited till it dropped from 80c to 5c before buying, you still would be losing most of your money again. Extraordinary! It goes to show, forget buying something simply because it has dropped a long way. It needs to have good prospects of near term cash flow in this market.
Other more recent examples, GMR 15c 1 year ago, now 2c, OBS 47.5c 9 months ago, now 12.5c. Producers strongly underperforming ABU include KCN, SLR, RMS, TAM, and there are plenty more, so its not just cash flow but its about margins and future cashflow relative to the mc. $30-70mill NPAT per year will be great for ABU with a mc of only around $90mill, but if you were a producer last year with a mc of 1.5bill like SLR reached while its NPAT was still only 33mill for 2012 then you have a lot of room to disappoint from those high valuations if anything goes wrong (POG falling in this case). ABU has a lot of room to please from its current mc and likely future cash flow.
If you bought ABU at half its peak, you would also be down but would still have more than 50% of your investment AND importantly you can look forward to cash flow from next month and see enough cash flow with no dilution over the next 2-3 years to build the bank balance to well in excess of the current mc. I.e. good reason to expect strong upside from here. In fact even if you were unfortunate enough to have bought at the peak, you still have good reason to expect to see your investment come good. I would hate to be waiting for that with stocks like NMG and AZM.
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