lynas will win in the end!!!!, page-29

'Thanks for the details of the Sojitz & Mt Kellet conditions Cafa. Of course these are a summary of Lynas's obligations not the detailed contracts.'

Correct, as I stated

'The Mt Kellett conditions are of absolutely no concern IMO: after all LAMP is now ramped up to 100% nameplate and no doubt got to 70% some time ago.
Barring some catastophic failure it looks a done deal.'

Probably correct, however we don't know if this includes the separating of the elements, which is part of LAMP1. If so, these covenants may remain until this point, and if LYC retain their premise that this will not occur until customer orders then de facto, we are awaiting a min 70% sales for a 6 month period. This may be some time away - who knows?


'The Sojitz condition on phase 2 production is much less clear to me, but it implies ph 2 ramp up around Sept to comply. No doubt this requirement on Lynas is contingent of Sojitz uptake of that output. Would make little sense otherwise.'

I think you make an assumption on the Sojitz uptake. There is nothing in the published data to even suggest this.

And even is LYC can ramp up phase 2, and produce for inventory, where does that leave the COP issue?

This agreement was signed when COP was on LYC numbers well under $10.

I'd be surprised if Sojitx agreed to a COP too far above this value, but stranger things have happened.

Just my view, but to dismiss these risks is in itself a high risk adventure in the current climate of prices, COP, and lack of confirmed sales contracts - IMO