what is a realistic prediction/timeframe, page-8

Bhutos and nammuldi, I agree with both of you, but..

I'm not sure its appropriate to compare PCL and PVD when PCL's ground has a more gas bias and PVD is more oil and completely different geological settings.

But hey, I like to look at who's in the same basin and match their geological/technical/country knowledge up against each other. And in PVD's case (and wrt the ASX) there's only one other contender and thats TPT (for now).

Ive spent some time with both the PVD and TPT management and our discussions basically centre around technical risks. We have PVD's consultants saying PoS 30% and TPT's saying 23%. In some 25 years, these are extra-ordinarily high figures. Yes, they are technical...not commercial figures but still amazingly high nevertheless.

For such nascent basins/plays, we should not accept these figures from our equity investor viewpoint. This is completely different from the technical stance that the consultants use.

So...FWIW..and avoiding any technical bias between the geological PVD plays and TPT plays (yes, they are very different...despite same country), I will, for these purposes, just apply a 10% CoS (>= sub-commercial). If we all do this, you will see, against the coys own median estimated recoverable oil that BOTH COYs HAVE PRETTY much the SAME LEVERAGE....to one well.

But where it all changes, is that PVD has 2 shots. TPT has one. The value of this second free well is huge.

Who has ever seen a $230m F/O for 52% from a micro-cap in a frontier country?. Yes, there may be some that remember that KAR is probably the best eg (circa 2008 or 2004) and they would probably be right.

The second free shot for us punters is the difference between massive dilution for survival and another free chance at an elephant. This is worth, if you're a risk-on pessimist, $25m on a pass-through after failure of Toubkal So PVD survives. In this mkt, a very valuable insurance policy.
TPT is a one shot. PCL, FAR are largely (at least on the east coast) gas prone and subject to a more complex timelines in the global LNG gas game.

Personally, I think the second shot is worth at least PVD's current Mkt cap. So why wouldn't one have this over the next 18-24mths? regardless of the RoW?

And I think its a secret gift that the rest of the Mkt are completely discounting Gabon. It therefore can only have amazingly free upside. Damon will get this farmed out this year so a free option on multi pre-salt plays...any day!

The metrics on this are just astounding.

Cheers,