A lot depends on what open hole data has been collected. Based on the HDR report, if they have run MWD logs, I will be surprised if thick sands are seen on the wireline logs. Therefore, I do not expect a commercial discovery. I would be thrilled to be proven wrong.
I believe that the well has told us nothing new:
1. The Cretaceous is a good source rock and is definitely mature.
2. Reservoir development is poor. Where thin sands are present, they will be hydrocarbon charged.
3. The seismic does not appear to be reliable enough to predict sand trends in the Cretaceous.
This does not worry me because I do not trade. I am a long term investor in HDR and am waiting for Chinguetti production, Tiof development, Faucon drilling, Guyane and Falklands exploration and ultimately, a dividend!
Cheers,
Oli
HDR
hardman resources limited
