read between the lines

Why ANTI-GOLD RUSH is positive:

Gold fell over 2 percent to $1,230 an ounce and silver dropped 4 percent to leave both at their lowest levels since September 2010 and gold facing its biggest quarterly drop on record.

After almost nine years of near unbroken gains, signs that the worst of the global financial turmoil may be over and that central banks might begin reducing stimulus, has sparked a major shift in investor attitude towards bullion.

Data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence jumped in June to its highest level in more than five years, supporting the view that the Fed will press ahead with plans to reduce its $85 billion a month support programme later this year.

"It seems as though the momentum is increasing in the sell-off (in gold)," said Viktor Nossek, head of research at Boost ETP, an exchange traded products provider.

"The stock market has recovered, indicating people see further stability ahead especially after the signals from the Chinese authorities that they won’t allow a complete meltdown in the money markets."

The market is still concerned about the Chinese growth outlook," said economist Alexandra Knight at National Australia Bank in Melbourne in reference to the slide in copper.

I guess the gist of the matter is: "...signs that the worst of the global financial turmoil may be over...."

The question therefore: Is the glass half full or half empty ? I guess in 2008 it was rather empty, same in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 (?) and maybe 2013 we have started to fill the glass again (preferably with a good Bordeaux....). It might be that at the end Bernanke & Co have done almost everything right? In this case I would also offer a bottle of wine to Bernanke....

And what does this all mean? Well...it means that we will experience a lot of volatility in the next few months. Furthermore it means that the worst is over and very propably all the negative sentiments and expectations are already priced in the current SP. This is not the beginning of a nightmare but slowly but surely we see light towards the end of the tunnel.

It is relatively simple: currently all analysts are negative, forecasts of almost everything have been reduced, it seems that everyhting has dramatically changed. Has ist really changed dramatically or are media, banks, hedge funds and analysts thinking that everything has changed dramatically?

Look at the newspapers. Stock market gain 5 % in 2 days and they speak of "the market recovered". Stock market looses 2 % and they write: "black monday" or what ever. Sometimes I really ask my self what it is all about this hocus-pocus. Always the same. Nothing has changed in the last 30 years.

I bet that the same analysts that are of the opinion that BTR today is far to risky to buy and even not a hold in 3 years - when we are back at A$ 2+ are recommending the stock as a stronggggggg buyyyyyyl Blue sky.

So what is my gut feeling telling me?

a) I am hungry but I know that this evening my wife will prepare a delicious dinner and I also know which bottle of wine I will drink. Salute.

b) The majority of the market participants are negative and have been negative for a while and therefore exactly the opposit will happen.

c) There is no elevator to success. You have to take the stairs !