Comment: Generally flat on low volume, although volume in this session was a little more than yesterday. (Up day yesterday, down day today – so volume still favours bears.) It looks like we’re in Holiday Doldrums in America. The next session is only a half day. Then the next day is July 4 Fireworks Day. Then Friday. It looks like traders are already taking the week off. Lower volume could result in a bit of volatility. We certainly saw that today with indices up moderately at around mid-day – then down to 3.00 – then recovered to mostly finish flat.
NYSE NewHighs/NewLows. 121/33. Ratio: 78.6%. NL Technical Comment on the SP500 (closed at 1614.08)
Indicators:
MACD Histogram: Above zero. Positive. MACD: Below zero. Negative. RSI.9 is at 50.1. Marginally above 50. Neutral. Stochastic. 54.8. In its mid-range where reversals can occur. CCI.14: +6.8. Above zero. Positive. Chaikin Money Flow: continuing to hold below zero. Negative.
The SP500 continues to consolidate below the 20-Day TMA. It is also marginally above two support lines, horizontal and oblique. We’re in for a big move soon.
I checked with SentimentTrader and the two days either side of the July 4 Fireworks Day are usually positive. So seasonals favour a move up. But – those seasonals are not highly reliable. So we’ll wait to see. There’s a huge POMO Day on Wednesday, $4.75-$5.75 Billion will be injected into the economy by the Federal Reserve. Anything north of $3 Billion is a big day. So it looks like Head Mechanic Bernanke wants to ensure Americans spend, spend, spend on lots of Fireworks (and other consumer goods) to keep the economy going. This doesn’t have a strong correlation with movements in the stock market – but it can’t do any harm.
Factors affecting Australia (mostly Materials and Energy): US$ Gold down, -0.89%; Copper down , -1.93%; Oil, +1.56%; Coal, -0.96%; Steel -0.08%, AUD, -1.03%. The Ozzie Stocks ETF on the NYSE (EWA) was up +0.45%. BHP on the NYSE down -0.05%
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