on the outside looking in...

I have no DYE stock so I've no axe to grind, I'm also no expert in the field of solar power generation. If that puts you off then read no further - it's really just a ramble about time frames and I'm not gonna write IMO all over the place because that's all it is....


There appear to be some around the DYE threads whose reasoning could be summarised as: Dyesol solar technology is one of the leaders in the field and improving all the time (true), therefore it won't be long before we see it all over the place in new buildings (not true).

First off, the concept of having a building being its own power generator is a pretty bold concept. It's not a new concept by any means, but it remains quite radical. The word "bold" I use in the late Humphrey Appleby sense where in Whitehall understatement it meant: "Jeeze mate, you're taking a risk."

Dyesol and like technologies are not bolt-on applications where if they don't pan out they are simply discarded and everyone carries on with conventional power generation. Not to say these technologies are not of more immediate use in thousands of lesser applications than buildings - but to imagine e.g. they will be incorporated into the domestic building industry any time soon would be pretty fanciful. My guess would be, first application in commercial pilot sites to prove things like efficiency, ease of maintainenance, durability, economics and so on. That takes time - lots of it.

There's another issue around the above. The building industry is generally fairly conservative. They are unlikely to jump into new technology before everything is nailed down. Even if Dyesol-like technologies eventually prove themselves to be cost competitive with alternatives, it could still be 20 years before there's any mass migration to such technology.

Which leads me to the question of, who's going to be the first on the dance floor in manufacturing products which could be used in this way? Most companies these days are highly aware of the need to protect their assets. Though to remain competitive in their industry they have to be engaged in innovative programs they are pretty cautious about how they go about that. TATA and others would be well aware it's the pioneers who get the arrows.... so it's a trade off for them, always has been, but there's no way TATA or any other materials manufacturers are going throw all their efforts in any one direction. Slowly, slowly is the name of the game - again, this takes time.

All the while there are Dyesol competitors in the solar field. I know nothing of other advances so can't guess how close others might be, though I'm sure Dyesol ain't Robinson Crusoe. There's always the outside chance that something completely new in the field of solar power generation could sit all current players on their backsides. It's not like Dyesol and others are making passenger vehicles where there's no risk of any sudden revolution. They are all out there pushing the boundaries of science. It's a risky ever-evolving business?

In summary, and assuming Dyesol maintains its recent significant technological gains and that nothing upsets the apple cart, it's still a work in progress with a considerable lead time to commercialisation, and it should be obvious it's not going to happen overnight.

Where does that leave the punters? I'd guess with plenty of time to consider their position. Along the way there's likely to be much volatility, you miss one spike, wait for the next.... it's probably not going to be a smooth ride.

end of ramble.