latest chart, page-29

Slick, if you have a pet hate against garbage ramps, by all means, tear down garbage ramps, there are however none where you are currently looking.
Nothing is ever certain in O&G but it doesn't necessarily follow that it means everything is a gamble because the risk profile of a prospect is gradually de-risked to acceptable levels.

A sports team making the grandfinal is a completely erroneous and purposely stupid example to make. For a starters assuming all other things are equal a team only has a 5.6% chance of winning, it's also dependent on competition with 17 other teams.

This is the kind of analogy you might have been able to use when Ungani was first being drilled, which was indeed very risky, but in O&G terms you seem not to understand that you HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE GRANDFINAL when you are producing and selling oil. The potential isn't to get there, it's what the SCORE is. Yes this is another risk factor but it's a minor one. We've proved we can produce and sell up to 628bbl day from two exploration drills, now we have to do further production workovers and drilling and get that up to 5000bbl which is an order of magnitude easier, it's primarily engineering work from here. Spanners can go in works, delays can happen, things can pop up, but the whole point of an EPT is precisely to derisk that part of the field and work out where you need to go and how you can get there. So maybe they only hit 3000bbl.. Now what? The thing to understand is, if you're investing in BRU for the stated and very attainable goal of 5000bbl/day, you're being pretty myopic. Whether they hit 2500, 4000, 6000, will have an insignificant fraction of the effect that commercial proof of the Laurel would, or success at Yakka Munga or any of the dozens of other prospects.
You do understand that the next prospect in the Ungani trend might be up to 100mmbbl right? THAT's where most of the risk and most of the reward comes from. It's certainly the only reason I'm still here - for the exploration upside, not piddly amounts of 1000bbl here or there by any particular month. Fundamentally the exploration upside outweighs any nascent production goals in any valuation in this case because of the sheer amount of prospects (3 billion barrels prospective conventional, to not even include the Laurel wet gas)
Unless you're valuing it as a producer only, which would be pretty stupid. There are of course operational issues that low production would bring in terms of cash flow, but I'm not adverse to further CR's so it doesn't overly worry me although of course it would be preferable to succeed in the highest ranges.

So criticise away, I certainly don't mind balanced views. We do have a very major, capex heavy road in front of us if everything goes well, and it won't all be smooth sailing (as we've seen from this year). But for heaven's sake pick better things otherwise it just looks like a bunch of noobs have jumped on after seeing a quick 40% rise, instead of realising it's just coming off ridiculous lows now that significant operational risks (trad owner issues) have been minimised and it's looking some action is on the horizon again.

If you want to see actual ramping, come back when they're drilling some new prospects and there are hundreds of millions of barrels being targeted and funny numbers being thrown around without support.