Hi Dave,
Your observation is perhaps due to the fact that the "market" has built into the price jump (on the first announcement) an expectation that if the first well was successful then neighbouring wells would also be successful.
I'm sure that a good announcement on the third well would also show a diminished positive effect on the share price. I, as a holder, look forward to that announcement regardless of this probability.
Anyhow, I do appreciate your efforts to explain the reasoning behind your ongoing sell recommendation to existing holders (ever since well below $1) but now that we're almost at $2 I'm sure you (and hopefully other holders) would appreciate my efforts to debate your opinion on the matter.
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