Hi Al, thanks for the welcome home. It's horrible.
My point of view is that this can't lead to a 'who was right who was wrong' moment because I was comparing past numbers to past numbers, not making a statement about the report coming this week. We have a disagreement about the validity of comparing averages to peak production numbers, and that's fair enough, but be careful of making the mistake that I said 'this' quarter will show an increase.
This is what was said:
------------------
Sep to Dec AVERAGE gross production [represented as sales] was 3784bopd.
Jan to March AVERAGE gross production was 5,111bopd
The difference is 1,326bopd on average which is actually a little more than the report quoted [1,174]. So all in all the production [as represented by the $13m increase in sales], is on the up, not the down.
-------------------
Now, you may well be right about production this quarter being down, I have been careful not to make such arguments because I'm the one constantly pushing the "oil production won't rise in a linear fashion" barrow (although I have some help). So if your right about the fall, well done, it matters more to you than it does to me. I've intentionally rounded that conversation, but would say, since we'll know in two days, that you might be spot-on.
If the numbers improve over a longer period of time, say year on year, I'll be happy.
Side-note. The newsletter also moves the Exxaro payment from end of Aug (in the Ann) to the end of Sep (in the letter). Not a good start.
LNC Price at posting:
$1.70 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
