daytrading july 30 afternoon, page-28

Thanks HLL.

BROKER ALERTS (2 x BDR, 1 x GRY, 3 x OZL, 3 x RIO, 1 x WPL)

Macquarie rates BDR as Outperform (1) -

Beadell has received approval to mine Duckhead, Tucano project, Brazil. Macquarie expects the deposit to deliver 340,000 tonnes of ore at an average grade of 8.7g/t gold over the next three quarters.

Beadell is a key pick for the broker in the ASX gold sector as the low cost profile provides limited downside risk in the current gold price environment. The Outperform rating and 80c price target are maintained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.06
If BDR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December. Macquarie forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.36.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

UBS rates BDR as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

June quarter output was in-line with UBS, although cash and bullion was at $37m, $5m short of the broker, while the hedgebook was $31m in the money. Mill throughput was ahead of nameplate and the magnetic separation plant was also finished. The company also received Government approval for the Duckhead pit.

CY13-14 EPS forecasts are lifted by 14% and 11%, while the recommendation is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. The EPS lift is on incorporating the strong quarterly numbers, while the downgrade is due to recent share price performance.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.06
If BDR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December. UBS forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.17.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

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Credit Suisse rates GRY as Outperform (1) -

The broker thought the June quarter release was sobering, saying it just shows how tough the market is for explorers. A new strategy was announced, which was all about cutting costs, but ensuring the ability of a quick go ahead on Banfora if needed.

The Outperform call is maintained, the broker noting that even with significant headwinds, GRY has $52m up its sleeves to keep it going until markets and external conditions improve.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.68
If GRY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 400% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.14.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

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BA-Merrill Lynch rates OZL as Neutral (3) -

OZ Minerals anticipates a $200-240m impairment of the Prominent Hill operation in the half year results on August 13. The broker understands the largest impact is the change in commodity price assumptions used for the NPV calculation. Merrills expects that this will impact below the line in 2013 and have a low quality earnings benefit in future years because of lower depreciation and amortisation.

The Neutral rating is retained and the price target has been lowered to $4.50 from $5.00.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $0.45
If OZL meets the BA-Merrill Lynch target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December. BA-Merrill Lynch forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 23.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.31.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

Credit Suisse rates OZL as Outperform (1) -

Rio Tinto ((RIO)) is selling out of Northparkes and the price paid makes OZ Minerals look like its sitting on an undervalued resource base.

Target price is $7.15 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $3.1
If OZL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December. Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 22.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.16.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

UBS rates OZL as Neutral (3) -

Target $4.70 (was $4.80). Oz Minerals said it will report a non-cash asset impairment of $200-240m on Prominent Hill given lower metal prices forecasts and the capitalisation of deferred waste from the open pit and Malu underground development work.

Reported EPS is unchanged, but underlying EPS moves to a loss and the broker has also zeroed out its CY13 DPS forecast. The latter being said, the broker does admit a dividend could still be paid given a fairly solid cash balance. The Neutral call is unchanged.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $0.65
If OZL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December. UBS forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 135.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

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Citi rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Rio is selling its Northparkes copper-gold mine to China Molybdenum for US$820m. The broker hopes the sale will complete in 2H13 and combined with the US$373m Palabora and US$325m Eagle Nickel sales, the deal should have Rio sitting on an extra US$1.5b in 2H13.

These recent asset sales combined with current operating cash flow should generate around US$2.5b in free cash in 2H13. A nice sum, but not enough to generate any need for capital management given net debt was at US$20b at the end of last year.

Now if the IOC sale can also be closed in 2H13, then capital management could be back on the agenda. Buy call and $67.00 price target maintained.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $57.11 Difference: $9.89
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 190.02 cents and EPS of 455.96 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.53.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

Rio Tinto has sold its 80% stake in the Northparkes copper mine for US$820 million in cash and delayed the underground expansion of the recently commissioned Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia pending government approvals.

Macquarie believes the sale of Northparkes removes lingering balance sheet concerns, but this is offset by the ongoing political strain in Mongolia, which weighs on sentiment towards a considerable investment by Rio Tinto.

There are slight earnings decreases of 0.3% and 0.4% in FY14 and FY15 as a result of the Northparkes sale. The Outperform rating and $75.00 price target are maintained.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $57.11 Difference: $17.89
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Macquarie forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 171.86 cents and EPS of 457.23 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.01%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.49.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

UBS rates RIO as Buy (1) -

The broker notes Rio Tinto is selling its 80% stake in Northparkes to China Molybdenum for US$820mand is expected to close by the end of 2013.

While the deal may not be that material to valuation, it does provide some additional cash flow that will come in use bulking up the balance sheet and fending off negative credit watch. Buy call and $80. Price target maintained.

Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $57.11 Difference: $22.89
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 179.71 cents and EPS of 472.36 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.09.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

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JP Morgan rates WPL as Overweight (1) -

P Morgan expects Woodside to report first half net income of US$842 million against a prior corresponding US$838m when the results are published on August 21. First half dividends of US145c are expected, comprising a franked US63c special and a US82c interim.

The most important topic of the report will be the Israel update as Woodside has yet to convert its in-principle agreement around a 30% interest in the Leviathan licences to a full agreement.

The Overweight rating is retained and the price target is reduced to $43.20 from $43.25.

Target price is $43.20 Current Price is $37.50 Difference: $5.7
If WPL meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December. JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 248.45 cents and EPS of 232.74 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.63%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.11.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

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The ASX 200 is consolidating in a narrow flag above the new support level at 5000. Upward breakout is likely and would signal a test of the May peak at 5250. Oscillation of 21-day Money Flow around zero indicates hesitancy. Reversal below 4850 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 4650.

The ASX 200 Volatility Index below 15 also indicates low market risk — a bullish sign.

The Nikkei 225 is similarly testing its rising trendline. Declining peaks on 13-week Money Flow indicate selling pressure. Failure of support at 12500 would signal a primary down-trend. Recovery above 15000 is unlikely but would test 16000.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index continues to test long-term support at 1950. Breakout would signal a primary decline, with a target of the 2008 low at 1660. Reversal of 13-week Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Respect of 1950 is unlikely, but would indicate a rally to 2150.