lyc risk reward equation, page-3

Good to see someone doing some actual fundamental work on the numbers Ousia, rather than just guessing or hoping.

But if you look on the other thread running today on this issue under "broker report" (was it really necessary for a new thread here? was it to avoid comparison of figures?) your assumptions are at the very optimistic end of the scale as you acknowledge, and are also not necessarily risk adjusted for the current technical issues, debt repayment obligations and loan terms, impact on customer confidence of supply delays, lost first mover advantage, lack of confirmed sales contracts, and unproven COP and margins. Add of course the low and uncertain demand and prices the next few years as even if people think the trend might be turning up it could still be a very gradual recovery for a long period.

That’s all fine though if you a want to be an optimist, it’s good to go around in life with a smile on your face, but it’s not necessarily astute investing.

Nevertheless, the main point I wanted to disagree with you on is your last paragraph. I think your summary of ducks in a line is where we were at pretty much the day before the quarterly came out. The quarterly release has undermined confidence and trust and we just don’t know all the implications and the risks to this company over the next 6 months are real.

Certainly as you say we need to wait until the next quarterly to get some clarity, so why invest before then?.