development of mt peake

It seems to me that the future of TNG, and its shareholders are now very much linked to financing and developing Mt Peake.

That said I wanted to start a discussion on how likely it is that finance will be secured.

My view is that it is about a 20% chance.

My reasons.

1. The timing of the DFS is delayed, and finance certainly will not be concluded without a DFS.
2. I am concerned that an internal DFS will not satisfy a third party. That would mean increased due diligence. That process alone could take 3 to 6 months after the DFS is complete.
3. The magnetite story is interesting, BUT there is actually plenty around, so the real question is, can it be sold? and if it can be at what price?
4. The Vanadium is good, but at least 2 years away, and demand is linked to factors which TNG has no control over.
5. The court case will put financiers off.
6. even if TNG can overcome all of the above; I remain very concerned about the cost of the deal. I know PF has very different views here, BUT I would not be shocked if over 50% of the equity in Mt Peake had to be handed over to get the finance. That has a huge effect on any NPV.

Above and beyond all of that there is the cash position, and how much the SPP will raise. Personally to me, the cash numbers do not add up, and there are big differences in the projected spend and the actual spend. This means either there are significant creditors, or something has changed, but the company has not commented on this that I am aware.
off.

The importance of this is fundamental, as my believe is that a further capital raise is needed before the DFS is completed.

My prediction is that it will be less than the current SPP.

I know that many here will just class this post a overly negative. Yes, that is my view, and has been for some time, and I have been correct all along. Much to my financial cost.

I am very interested in other posters of views, and hopefully the balance to my own views.

UM