amazing half-year result predicted, page-11

Molly - i figured you would pick me up on on my somewhat questionable methodology, and also agree forcasts should be based on the outlook for the projects in hand. but i don't have that info, and i still want to update my assessment of the stock i am holding on the latest info coming out. so this was my line of thought.

1. H1. - "consolidated profit" (before tax) figure given for for H1, also expressed as a percentage of the previous pcp. ie H1 2012. to obtain NPAT for UOS for HI 2013 multiply the H1 2012 NPAT / shr. x the increase in profit (PBT) given ie 49% and add to H1 2012 NPAT = same as x 1.49.
Appreciate the 49% is based on consolidated and not UOS, but when looking at the sources of income from the subsiduaries - it has all come from UAOdevDB of which UOA holds 78%.

2. for H2 - I have taken two approaches
(a) averaging a large number of H1 results & H2 results separately {in c/s} and dividing one into the other. H2 results average signigantly higher at 1.62% of HI (but not always)
adding H1 & H2(a)together gives 14.3c. for FY.

(b the second approach is to simply add up the last four years of H2 results, average them, and add to the to H1 - giving a result of 10.3c. eps for FY.
this gives is a very low ball concervative estimate for the FY.

gk.