plv 12.5c new line in the sand, page-17

Satori,

With CEO/Director liability, PLV is very constrained in what it can say. I'm not. No lawyer is vetting my posts and if I get it wrong no one is going to sue me. Normally, a broker would be joining the dots and identifying the key drivers/risks/rewards. I expect a broker recommendation will only hit print once PLV secures export credit funding/GNR funding. Brett is adopting a conservative approach. That fits well with me.

Is PLV misunderstood in a valuation sense? Sure bet. There is little transparency to the financial statements. The Half yearly to Dec, released in June was a shocker to get your head around. So much post December information added in such that the account statements were redundant. My solution until the full year accounts is to follow the cash as best I can.

The months post Aug 31 will be very interesting. GNR is at a crossroads. Put in some $$ and help PLV secure export credit funding and be rewarded with an off-take or alternatively make a bid for WEG and/or their PLV shares pre funding. You might think GNR cant bid yet because WEG does not have full JV status, but they could make a bid conditional on WEG signing sub-lease documents. Obtaining export credit funding, and for that matter GNR funding, is complicated given the JV uncertainty (who am I giving the debt facility to? What security is available?). The acquisition cost for GNR goes up post funding.

WEG is also at a crossroads. Go through with the JV long term or admit your balance sheet isn't big enough and sell down your share. GNR won't fund WEG unless they have assets as security and WEG's PLV shares won't cut it based upon current pricing. Unless WEG have a bigger balance sheet than I think they have, I'm glad I'm not in WEG's shoes.

PLV is at a crossroads because everyone else is at a crossroads. A bit tongue in cheek, but my point is that PLV does not have full control of the agenda as I see it. I know it's tough to be patient when we have been so patient already. Nevertheless, that is what is required.

Personally, I hope a JV proceeds. PLV is trying to buy something it can't afford. They need to reduce risk by having a partner. Preferably, its GNR, but WEG will do. If directors can retain 100% without betting the company on it then they are Gods in my eyes. They have no right to put the company at risk though.

Here's a simple chart for CK and the other TA's:

Recall from my posts with Wayward that I exclude trading halt days from my data. The vertical is 31 Aug. Note the crossroads. If WW1 was here it would be interesting to see if he had a time event near that date (his data includes trading halts). Initially, I thought we might get a cup and handle formation. The handlé's a bit big in any case.

Cheers
Bleasby