Kingvox is pretty much right. I do not work for the company and although I am a process engineer I work in chemical manufacturing not mining. The principles are the same though.
1. Is it Nameplate or Steady-state Nameplate that you are predicting will occur Oct/ Nov'13?
This was purely my guess based on how long it took them to achieve the first phase operation...namely achieving 65%. That took November-June and now we have only August/September/October/November for the polishing circuit. I have discounted July due to filtration issues (one step back two forward hopefully). Flotation cells are going to be more complex so although the polishing circuit is only two unit processes from 9 (they commissioned 7/9 to get the 65%) it would theoretically take longer but they have far fewer to do. Flotation generally uses chemical enhancement to achieve the results and although they should have lab indicators it will still take time to get the balance right. It is my hope that they will have achieved nameplate from the circuit by Oct/Nov, I expect they will have some short maintenance shuts though before they get into proper steady state long term production. It is impossible to tell though as they could have another filtration type issue, hence the guarded language in the last announcement.
2. How long does a plant typically have to successfully operate at Nameplate before company management will declare Steady-state Nameplate?
This should only be a matter of wording. As long as it is time/rate contingent. They could say we produced at nameplate capacity of xxxxx tonnes/hour for 24 hrs. There are so many factors to consider, ie. maintenance being the primary one. I don't know if there is a ASIC governed standard but with GBG management I would want to see them waiting for a couple of weeks at nameplate before announcement. Otherwise news may receive a cold reception or a surge will be followed by a quick fall (if something goes wrong after a premature announcement).
3. If 6 of 11 ships sent in July were 65%Fe Magnetite, how many ships would you guess are Magnetite in August if 13 ships are sent? I'm thinking at least 8 ships as they ramp to 11 which is required to achieve nameplate.
Impossible to tell, there are too many variables and unless you watch the ships load no idea. It depends how their stockpiles are looking at the minesite, they could have shipped all DSO or all 65% for all I know.
4. Any view on when they will be ready to send the first ship load of 68%Fe Magnetite?
No idea once again, the announcement was so guarded. I think saying 'batches' is poor to be honest. They should have stated an amount, ie, we successfully produced 5,000 tonnes of 68% after continuous production for eight hours. I think even a crystal ball would have trouble pinning down this one. Look back and see how long it took to ship the first lot of 65%, it took three months from memory.
Anyways SDO, this is all just guess work. Let's see what half yearly states and what the Q3 report will say. I am hoping this thing can get to nameplate whilst the IO price is still strong and make some decent margin.
GBG Price at posting:
15.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
