MSB 2.98% $1.47 mesoblast limited

shocking!!, page-40

  1. 85 Posts.

    Angelus, that's very interesting.

    MSB have much more to loose if Revascor does not achieve any pre-defined end points for the interim part of the trial. TEVA seems lukewarm (hence the early efficacy analysis) so there's bound to be disagreement about what constitutes a successful result and TEVA won't want to hand over additional cash if it doesn't believe they are on to a winner.

    Another thing to consider is that MSB mentioned running the mulitple phase 3 trials in parallel. If you owned MSB this is a much safer strategy than pursuing CHF alone (the "leading with the chin" analogy).

    Imagine if CHF kicked off in FY12 and missed the endpoints with everything else in the pipeline years away. SP would be decimated with no saviour in sight. There's certain logic in delaying it until now.

    In the report they hint strongly at consolidating - it's come to the point where they will need to cull the least promising indications. I guess this reflects the maturity of company. It could by CHF#3, there's implied warning in the report. To be a success MSB only needs the 1 success so I guess this is what we need to get our head around. The talk of CHF being lead product has gone.
 
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