Grayndler NSW ALP 20.6% Vs Liberal or Marginal Labor 4.2% Vs GREEN
Depending on which 2010 result you choose to use, Grayndler is either one of Labor's safest seats, or it is a marginal seat in a contest versus the Greens.
In 2010 the Greens finished second ahead of the Liberals, and with the Liberal Party recommending preferences for the Greens, this resulted in Labor having a margin of only 4.2% in the final count of preferences versus the Greens. However, if Green preferences were distributed, then Labor would have won with an enormous 20.6% two-party preferred margin over the Liberal Party.
National polls indicate that the Green vote has fallen since the 2010 election, suggesting the Greens may slip back to third place in 2013, meaning Grayndler will again be an ultra-safe seat. In addition, the Liberal Party has indicated it will recommend preferences against the Greens in 2013, a decision that would produce a swing towards Labor even if the Greens maintain second place.
A poll by Lonergan Research published in the first week of the campaign reported first preferences of Labor 47%, Liberal 28% and Greens 22%. This puts support for both the Labor and Liberal parties up since 2010 and the Green vote down. If this poll is correct and the Greens have slipped back to third place, then Labor will win Grayndler in a canter.
