the chance is very high. The reason it missed the September quarterly review was that TTS has not got 6 months of trading history for its liquidity (one of criteria for inclusion in the index).
It is also most likely will be included in ASX 100 instead of ASX 200 as you have suggested. The main reason is due to its market capitalisation. Its market cap was about 2.304 Billion dollars when its share price was at $3.26 at lst Friday and it was ranked at 89 based on last week end Top 150 companies (The Australian Newspaper, page 46, Nov 11-12 2005). Ranked at 100 was Challenger (CGF) and its market cap was 2.04 Billion dollars. Please note that the market cap will fluctuate as the share price move up or down (assuming no new issue of shares).
Macquarie has also done some index studies many weeks/months ago and mentioned on TTS and its impact on numbers of shares may be bought when it is included in ASX 100 (from memory about 33m shares when TTS was at 315c). Other criterias are also assessed before inclusions such as market cap, peer companies comparison, history of trading (about 6 months at least), free float, etc (see S&P web sites for guidelines for more details).
Cheers,
BL
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