wheres the the love gone, page-6

re seasonal changes in the gold price.

I am hesitant to challenge any figures by Adam Hamilton of Zeal Research, but I think he is under-stating the average increase for September!

Taking the average for August and September since 1998 in US$/oz, I get the following % change for September:

1998 7.48%
1999 20.68% (after Brown's bottom!)
2000 -1.21%
2001 7.36%
2002 3.48%
2003 3.3%
2004 2.06%
2005 9.23%
2006 -3.89%
2007 10.57%
2008 6.18%
2009 5.26%
2010 4.65%
2011 0%
2012 7.12%

Hence, the average uplift over the 15 years is 5.49%.
As there are 13 'up' months and only 2 'down' months over the period it would imply a probability of 87% that September will end up being an 'UP' month.

But statistics being what they are that probably means that gold will now spite me by having a bad month!
CPDLC