405 votes behind with maybe 3500 votes to count?
If they are all postal votes and the postal vote 57.08% trend to Sophie continues then she will get 1998 more and Macgowan 1502 but that is a very hypothetical prediction unless we can be assured of the number 3500 more to come and the 57% trend continuing.
mcgowan's lead slipping in indi, page-8
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