Our HCV program won't be commercially available by xmas 2015 so it will be worth what the market is prepared to pay. Gilead did pay a high price for Pharmasset but that was at a time when there was no interferon free treatment available. Sofosbuvir has been through Plll testing and by xmas this year could be approved by the FDA. That would give it a two year advantage even if the xmas 2015 date was a viable date for TT-034. Furthermore, Abbvie and Merck have drugs that are also heading for the market. So, as I said in an earlier post, the question is what will be TT-034's market share potential because that will determine how much some else will be willing to pay for it and by YE 2015 that won't be anywhere near $11B.
HBV: I don't think we even have a date for being in the clinic for HBV much less a commercial opportunity so it is unclear how much anyone would be willing to pay for this, and to some extent that amount would be influenced by the success or not of the Arrowhead siRNA trial which is about to begin Pl/ll.
HIV: If our deal with Calimmune is anything like our deal with Regen ($25K up front followed by another $25K later plus a low percentage of royalties) then we can expect its value to us to be lowest of any kind of biotech deal. So it will put value on the company but not billions of dollars.
NSCLC: This does not go into the clinic until Q4 2014 so xmas 2015 won't see to much significant data being released. Again, difficult to know how to value this especially when Gradilis is already treating NSCLC patients using bi-functional shrna.
Our IP: Core patents expire in 2018. By xmas 2015 any investor/big pharma just wanting our IP would want to make sure our IP could be extended beyond 2018. The earliest the BLT could test the water on this is 2016.
The bottom-line here is that, without more money being spent on R&D (remember Regulus spent $12M on R&D in 12 months) to advance other programs, our hopes are pinned well and truly on HCV and NSCLC. Market sentiment will determine their worth but IMO xmas 2015 is too early to be talking $10B.
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