SVC,
It is not DPS (div. per share) that will drive the share price, but the EPS (earnings per share).
DPS is merely a component of EPS. What is not paid as EPS, is available for BHP to grow the business.
At the rate BHP is generating ROE (return on equity), the retained money will earn more for shareholders than most (not all) shareholders can earn elsewhere.
Anyway, the expected profit for FY 30/6/06 is US$9 billion. The cash flows will cover most of the capex and BHP can also access debt markets at relatively low rates by issuing commercial securities.
Latent upside exists if BHP starts the on-market buyback program. Just look what the on-market buyback did for RIO's share price recently.
The presentation tomorrow about the aluminium division is likely to be positive, given the improved outlook for that sector.
The AGM on Friday might provide updated earnings guidance.
another a$3 bln on iron ore expansion , page-3
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