Appreciate the feedback Ausheds. That's what I was looking for, to test my thinking.
Your realised price 2014 of $22/kg is 26% below my assumption of $30/kg. It reduces the gross margin on my model from about $90m to $40m for the year, less corporate costs and financing.
It's still above breakeven though and I could live with that for the moment and let them improve margins over time.
I also suspect my assumed cost of production could be a lot less for the reasons stated in my initial post. Either way I'm comfortable with the margins I've assumed.
Nevertheless whether you're right or I'm closer, it's good to put a couple of markers out there and to understand the implications ahead of whenever Lynas give us the information.
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$8.17 |
Change
0.025(0.31%) |
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$8.10 | $8.17 | $8.06 | $5.355M | 659.9K |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
14 | 2547 | $8.16 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$8.17 | 8679 | 17 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
18 | 4276 | 8.120 |
18 | 32797 | 8.110 |
20 | 19194 | 8.100 |
18 | 11626 | 8.090 |
16 | 46710 | 8.080 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
8.130 | 13528 | 41 |
8.140 | 8995 | 24 |
8.150 | 14378 | 29 |
8.160 | 20464 | 21 |
8.170 | 16061 | 13 |
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