valuation time, page-14

From the 2012 Capital Raising ...

"The Company will also issue 50 million advisor options for a consideration of $5,000. The options have an exercise price of 5 cents per share and are exercisable up to 30 June 2014.The issue of these options offers the potential for a further cash injection of $2.5 million assuming the Company meets its milestones and the share price exceeds the option exercise price."

Further share price appreciation would negate immediacy of Capital Raising if the holders exercise but an extra 50M shares would likely slow things down. Announcement from final Cohort of Multiple Myeloma trial eagerly awaited by all (current holders and interested parties alike)- what that indicates is I guess the $64,000 question of the moment.

Just another couple of points/thoughts impacting valuation/price action.

Short Term

Huge volumes traded in last days even accounting for churn (have to put my hand up for some of that). I concur with speculation the SP was being played in the last month or so to set up this weeks action. Nice work btw :-)

Chartists are clearly struggling to read the tea leaves on PAB, probably due to recent shenanigans or maybe because chartings is always easier after the action (personal experience) ;-)

Buying patterns indicative of serious attempts at accumulation. Traders lined up and taken out more than once in the last two sessions. A SS ANN would be a welcome confirmation it was not all churn and put a "re-rating" floor under SP.

Long Term

PAB still at very early stages and a long way from marketable product so present valuation somewhere between $50 to 150M if a buyer wanted control. A substantial deal at this stage on any of the lead products would crystallise value in this window.

The dollars required for PAB to push beyond this valuation is significant - even with fast track approval it is still 10's of Millions of dollars to get into Phase III. The longer PAB survive independently the higher the value will go - but that requires continued successes at Discovery/Phase I/II - and of course more shareholders money!