elliott wave count

I know that chartists are deeply and profoundly respected on HC (especially the KAR thread), so I thought I'd share my Elliott Wave (EW) interpretation of KAR... the basic concept of EW is that it can predict the markets psyche through wave pattern recognition whereby the market unfolds in ABC or 12345 wave patterns. Obviously that is a very basic description of EW, and there is a fair bit more to it than that.

Off the bat I have to say that the beautiful thing about EW is there are always many ways to interpret the waves, and because there is no "official results" service, only time reveals which wave count or scenario is correct.

I have dramatically simplified the attached wave count for ease of layman interpretation, and I must say that I'm not in love with this wave count (I give it about a 15% chance of success), but I post it to show a POTENTIAL pattern that could lead to a decent reversal in the near term.

This particular wave count will be nullified if one of the critical EW conditions for a triangle is breached - without wanting to bore you all with the rules of EW, let's just say that if KAR trades below $3.75, this particular wave count is completely negated and proven incorrect.

I think it is obvious that KAR has been stuck in an ugly corrective phase for sometime, and that lends some weight to this ugly triangular wave B of B count. If this count is correct, then sooner or later KAR must travel towards the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level of $8.47 (to retrace the $12.10 to $2.60 move) at a minimum.

From $8.47, there is possibly quite bad news ahead, but lets first; a/ stay above $3.75, and, b/ get to $8.47, before we worry too much about the future!

For any EW aficionados out there, the interesting thing since $12.10 is all of the C waves have extended, which might be a good thing as in the attached count, equality for the current wave C is targeting somewhere between $7.89 and $8.11, so obviously we will need a C wave extension to get to the previously mentioned minimum $8.47 level. For those who are interested, a 161.8% C wave extension targets just over $10.30 - huzzah!

as a final note to Golfzoner, I am a chartist who has made way more money than I've lost (for myself and others - including banks) over the years using charts and EW. Am I always right? Not at all! Is charting perfect? Not at all! However, I have personally predicted well in advance too many uncanny market movements using EW to say it is just luck or coincidence. That said, I do accept that it could be more arse than class!! lol

EW or not, let us all hope that the current KAR misery is nearing an end!

cheers, marwoode
p.s. to whom it may concern, I'm used to getting ridiculed about EW, so let it rip if you so desire! lol