[quote]a) there is no particular reason for the US$ to go up (ask any exponent of the 'fiat currency' theory) but the fact is it does![/quote]
Not quite right, the curreny market trades on central bank movements most of time. Therefore, the interest rate differentials between the pair currencies plays a very important role. With interest rates on the rise in the U.S the corresposinding currency such as the AUD loses its yield attractiveness.
[quote]b) gold shouldn't be going up against a firming dollar (that's according to amory's theory, where I've said many times it can go up but not in a spectacular fashion until such time as the dollar goes down) but again the fact is for the time being it does![/quote]
Gold is trading on supply/demand constraints. Even though the old logic suggests that gold should fall when the USD rises was correct in the 80s. However, gold is no longer American-centric. We must take into account the demand of gold from China, Brazil, Middle East, China, India. In the 80's these nations were not in the global gold trading game, now they are.
[quote]c) the US market is not supposed to go up against a rising oil-price (inflation, consumer resistance etc) but it does![/quote]
True, rising energy prices causes alot of stagflation. However, inflation is not a concern as yet. Copper and gold may be rising to new multi year highs, however other commodites such as wheat, soy beans, corn, coffee etc are falling. For a true inflationary environment all these commodities must be trading at much much higher levels.
[quote]a lot of irrational illogical behaviour there. until it makes up its mind one way or the other, it might pay to stay on the sidelines in wonder & amazement.[/quote]
I disagree the market is irrational, it's just one point of view of many out there.
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