In this powerplay the Chinese have factored into their calculations two things which are highly debatable.
1) That the US will not intervene should there be a 'shooting war' between Japan and China despite the fact they have a treaty obligation to do so (Note that Australia would also be obligated to fight alongside Japan and the US given the US-Japan-Australia military alliance)
2) That the Japanese Government will not change Article 9 of their Constitution and re-arm. Japan has the capacity to become a very substantial military force in a very short time frame should they choose to do so.