Weekly Fundamental and Technical Analysis Prospects - Week Starting 25h Nov 2013 (No. 93)
Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week). All listed market caps are undiluted (and do not include escrowed shares) (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).
Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that you perform detailed research on each stock first and make your own mind up to whether invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!
Weekly Fundamental Analysis Prospects ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AXE - Graphite/Magnesite – South Australia,
25/11/2013
Catalyst for rise in sp short term – 1. Possible off-take partners resulting from graphite samples being sent to end users2. Possible sale/jv partner in Leigh Creek Magnesite - the World’s largest cryptocrystalline magnesite deposit. JORC resource > 400mt grading 41.4% MgO Graphite Projects – Campoona Shaft & Campoona Central have a current combined Measured/Indicated/Inferred JORC Resource of 2.527 Mt (JORC Resource could support 15-year project with further resource additions expected) and a target of 40 – 70 Mt. AXE Has a substantial land position (1,100km2) in a major "graphite province" containing multiple targets, yet to be drill tested. What sets Campoona apart from almost all other graphite deposits in the world is its ability to deliver ultra pure, high value, highly crystalline ultra-fine graphite using conventional mechanical cell flotation, grading up to 99.9% C. Exceptional recoveries of >90%. Purity virtually unheard of from mechanical cell floatation. Concentrates rival synthetic graphite in grade but deliver far higher crystallinity This means AXE is very likely to enter the higher value end of the graphite market. World expert Dr David Lock appointed Manager Metallurgy to drive Campoona graphite deposit towards production in June 2012. Londsale Metallurgical sample processing facility established in October 2012. Bulk float production nearing completion. Certification and marketing to commence. Campoona mine and processing plant freehold land acquired in August 2013.Mining lease permitting started in September 2013.Strong financial position, with cash at 30/6/13 $8.6millionShares on issue 82.4mil, unlisted options on issue 8.1mil Poster: TobyJack (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
Underperforming share price possibly a result of shareholder disappointment with management. New board appointments possibly cause for a significant sentiment shift. Poster: Mowibble (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
ron ore producer in Tasmania, plus holder of Southdown discovery in WA which is 7 times larger than savage river. Savage river is a 65% fe that fetches above the current spot I/o price. Had an issue 18 months ago and got sold down from circa 60c range. Thos e issues now addressed Last known cash around $150mil Cash flow positive producer that has track record now of paying a 1c divi per half, unfranked. Annual yield of greater than 10c on recent trading range. Cash expected to grow in next quarterly with significance from AUD and grades improvement Trigger event. Call it dumb, call it superstitious. From week 1 of December every year, the volumes increase, which then culminate in the week between Xmas and new year seeing a 30%+ climb. Happens every year. Last year was 31 December.......Southdown. Expected to announce a JV soon. Farm out more likely than several billion to fund on own. Cash position has been preserved well and continued to pay divi. Most recent presentation released to the AsX was 18.11.13 at 8.28am and remains a great source for the up and coming FA events. I hold this in my super fund and continue to buy up every retrace that occurs, including last week. Poster: BrookCe (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$283.3m)
HZN - Oil/Gas in NZ, PNG and China,
25/11/2013
he company focuses on three main areas, being the producing Maari field offshore New Zealand, and assets under development in Papua New Guinea and China .Last known cash position was suffice reported for next 12 months including a raising in August. Big bounce of support last week and volumes increased. Key events coming up are several drilling for O&G, which include 3 separate significant discoveries Priorities for 2014 – News Flow? New Zealand– Execution of Maari growth projects program and run-up in production– Whio-1 exploration well in PEP 51313? China– Submission of Beibu Gulf Phase II (WZ 12-8E field) development plan to Chinese government– Seismic evaluation of Bohai 09/05 exploration block? Papua New Guinea– Award of Stanley development licence and commencement of construction– Sales of Stanley gas to regional PNG customers– Finalisation of PRL 21 FEED for Elevala/Tingu/Ketu and submission of development licence application to PNG government– Exploration drilling to build threshold gas resource for mid -scale LNG project Poster: BrookCe (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$409.9m)
GRY - Gold Uramnium and Base metals,
25/11/2013
GRY’s flagship project is Banfora Gold Project in Burkina Faso, West Africa. GRY also has interests in projects located in Australia and West Africa. Last known cash position is $52millionCash burn per quarter around $5mil and reducing. This year Gryphon will deliver on a number of key objectives at our flagship Banfora Gold Project that will de-risk, get ready and add value to the project for minimal cash outlay. As the first Australian Company moving into Burkina Faso, these key objectives build on and complement the key milestones the Company has already achieved, including the delineation of a 4.9Moz gold resource estimate and the delivery of a BFS over the Banfora Gold Project, including 1Moz in reserves (ASX release 31/01/13)The Company is undertaking a detailed review of a significant number of options whilst continuing to advance Project development and permitting activities. In the most recent ann on 30 October, the catching statement was that they "look forward to releasing results in the coming month s". Expected news in coming fortnight and expect some good positions will be taken again similar to last run in September to 25c from 18c in a day. The announcement on 30 oct also highlights that even with gold at $1300 the project was still extremely profitable to continue Poster: BrookCe (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$52.1m)
BTR - Copper Zinc Explorer in Africa,
25/11/2013
Blackthorn Resources Limited (BTR) is an Australian-based resources company with a diverse portfolio of African assets including zinc, gold, copper, nickel and platinum group metals. CEO just appointed last week. Expecting to make some announcements as triggers for price growth. Background in Lihir Gold, Newcrest, MPI to name a few. Experienced mining executive. Last known cash position was $21million. Cash burn approx $3m-$4m per quarter. Details from last Ann with further due.... to provide assay results for drill holes KITDD_034 and the extensions to holes S36_026 and S36_028, as well as an update on the Kitumba Project PFS optimisation. The location of these drill holes is shown in Figure 1. A section showing the holes against the April 2013 Mineral Resource model is contained in PFS Optimisation. The Company is also pleased to advise that work on the PFS optimisation is now underway, with Perth-based Lycopodium Minerals Pty Ltd and Australian Mining Consultants (AMC), along with other specialist consultant s, engaged to complete a series of optimisation studies (PFS-OS) on the September 2013 Kitumba Prefeasibility Study. Metallurgical testing on samples collected during the recent Phase 7 drilling program is currently underway at hrl testing Pty Ltd in Brisbane. The optimisation study is expected to be completed by the end of March 2014. Poster: BrookCe (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$32.9m)
RGS - Biotech - cell-based regenerative medicine ,
22/11/2013
ver 350 procedures across 800 joints since commercial launch in FY12 –? Available through sports med and orthopaedic specialists in Sydney, Melbourne and Gold Coast – expand to other major cities. Finalising manufacture scale up and commercialisation pathways •? Complete safety study in FY14 Outlook for next 12 months •? HiQCell – Autologous point-of-care –? Expand treatment footprint and procedure rates in Australia and launch in foreign market –? Explore commercial partner opportunities –? Grow clinical data through Registry –? Extend to new musculoskeletal applications – pain management •? CryoShot – Canine OTS –? Enter into manufacturing agreement –? FDA sign off on product for trial and trial design –? Continue to gather field trial data in Australia •? Cancer Vaccine – Vet and Human autologous –? Commence US marketing trial in canines –? Prepare for market launch –? Seek safety trial in humans •? CryoShot – Human OTS –? Finalise product manufacture –? Approval for safety trial •? Secretions Cream-OTS –? Safety study for topical applications for inflammatory skin conditions –? Explore accelerated market entry aised A$10.5m at $0.25c (mkt cap $45m) •? 183.8m shares on issue (26% subject to escrow) •? First ASX biotech IPO since 2011 •? Share price up 96% since listing - $0.49c (mkt cap $90m) at 17.11.13 $0.51c 21.11.13 Poster: Vogliobene (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$67.2m)
AHZ - Healthcare,
22/11/2013
COMPANY STRATEGY & VALUE PROPOSITION Strategy remains the same: Building an integrated healthcare company Recognised and experienced Board & management Extensive corporate development, finance, M&A, medtech, therapeutics, sales and licensing experience Growing Revenues Expanding infusion portfolio organically and via products developed in-house from our regenerative medicine platform EU approval for CardioCel Sales across the group up 15%Commercialising a pipeline of next generation vaccines Immunotherapies with Professor Ian Frazer’s team Revenue + Significant value drivers over the next 12 – 36 months Poster: Vogliobene (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$200.5m)
CKA - Coal in Indonesia/Australia,
22/11/2013
he BBM Coal Project (IUP 188.45/149/2013) is situated in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia in the prospective metallurgical Upper Barito Coal Basin, Regency of Murung Raya. The Project covers an area of 15,000 hectares. The Project is adjacent to the BHP Billiton’s, Indomet Coal, Joloi Project in Murung Raya Regency. BBM currently has a JORC Resource of 77 Million tonnes (Mt) in multiple seams comprised of 70Mt Inferred and 7Mt Indicated Resources. Cokal has also been working on converting the 200 to 350Mt additional Exploration Target1in to JORC resources. Cokal is completing definitive studies and obtaining the necessary approvals with the aim of commencing construction in late 2013 which would see first production occur in the first half of 2014 Poster: Vogliobene (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$91.2m)
OTH - Online Realestate,
22/11/2013
OTH is rolling out an Australian version of US Zillow, an online real estate business. Zillow has a market cap of $2.9 billion, operating in the US with a population of 317 million. Applying simple population ratio logic to Australia's 23 million, OTH could have a market value of $217 million when the business matures in a few years time. Over 82 million shares that's a price target of $2.60. Current share price 72c.Cash is $4.2 million, however there is a small debt. Still, net cash position is positive.OTH has two divisions, a real estate solutions division which is profitable, and being used to invest in it's online consumer division. Overall OTH has EBITDA of $7.0 million, and pays a small dividend. IMO it does not need to raise capital to fund it's growth. It has strategic deals with CBA (sponsor of the onthehouse.com.au website) and Westpac (sponsor of the iPhone app).It already has the second largest online real estate presence in Australia, with 1.5 million individual visits per month. Poster: Umizoomi (STT Accuracy: 70% - Ranking No.1 ) Click Here for originating post
Current price 0.16 (MC 14M)Cash: Convertible Notes of ~8Mill available to fund drilling etcFA - Further drill results expected shortly at their already significant Williamson gold project (250Koz so far - projections are up to 2Moz).In total company holds JORC 1.5Moz of AU resources (408Koz in Measured and indicated category)In pre-feasibility for Matilda gold project (currently at 784Koz with new lodes recently discovered), with some analysts speculating that purchase of a second hand plant from the nearby now defunct Willuna Gold Mine is being negotiated in the background for a rapid mining start up. Significant 1.4bt coal resource held on which an offer of 15Mill was rejected in 2011 due to the company seeing greater value in it. Poster: Andyk_79 (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$14.3m)
QRX - Biotech,
20/11/2013
elay of FDA approval, sp has been halved, from $1.37 to $0.60. Last time, sp sharply dropped to 50c, then bounced to 90ish, steadily @68-75c, then went back over $1 on expectation of FDA approval. Capital raising is always painful during the offer time, share price is hovering around issue price until short after the shares being issued. Current perfect examples, TIS, hovering around 22c, today jumped to 28c.CSS, hovering around 3.8-4c despite of the strength of the general market, But rose hardly today after manipulation (I called).Same happen here, QRX has been pushed down to the issue price 60c, might still hover around 60s before spiking. The Managed Funds have been keeping buying QRX shares, didn't sell any shares.QRX is going to lodge new NDA within 11 days, they can't manipulate share price for long. Current cash: $16.5m + further $2.5m from SPP Poster: Accaeric (STT Accuracy: 46.2% - Ranking No.4 ) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$86.1m)
CDU - Copper in Qld,
20/11/2013
Key metric in modelling shows Free cash flow analysis shows circa $1 a share using some basic assumptions in the modelling. I do need to revisit this now mine to port logistics will be 100% CDU. Worst case variance at an assumed $100m for mine to port delivery effects free cash flow by approx $0.30 for short term payback and ignores beneficial refinancing as an opportunity. Today's announcement of FIRB approval for China Oceanwide to increase CDU holding to 19.9%. The additional 4.9% of shares, if purchased on market, should alleviate the shorting pains by long term holders, creating positive TA signals...Rights and options at $2.50 available to holders, ex rights date 20th Nov should see a company strategy to increase share price closer to option strike price. This strategy will probably include - pit redesign and optimization using latest drill data. Significant because Cu % should see a moderate increase in JORC.- Potential update on DSO (Direct shipping Ore) Cash flow dates . I rate this a 50% probability of happening at best.- Updated timelines with a real risk of delayed cash flows (don't think I've seen a mining project yet hit initial target dates....- mining rate updates, current costs are below project forecasts at $1.90 / T, and I speculate that CDU will continue to mine while weather is favourable. Poster: 383hq (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
development and commercialisation of point of care rapid diagnostics including illicit drug screening devices (main product is a saliva drug test). Manufacturing partnership announced today, late in the day. Recently seen some board changes with some well experienced directors being hired. A lot of the R&D side of their product has been completed and they are looking at refining the final product, hence I guess the board members taken on with experience in IP procurement and protection, FDA regs etc, and today's annc. Howard Digby (exec chairman) is also director of CYP (formerly ECQ).This is a biotech with a very short pathway to commercialisation and although their product is not hugely groundbreaking, it is aiming to grab some of a $2.6b growing global market. In the short-term there are a number of potential price driving announcements due- check out the latest quarterly which describes 8 of these on page 2 due to occur in this current December qtr. - $1.6m cash at end of Sept- low cash burn- $3.8m diluted market cap- Top 20 hold 60%- Directors hold approx 10% plus options- Jason Peterson holds another 10% Poster: Prestonian (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
Already have this pick but were now 3 days out form Frac crews arriving for the first well and speculators have started so need to get in soonish. Need to see threads for recent BRR presentation its a cracker with details. In short they have 3 company making assets to be drilled in the next month or so. Vail project - Bakken look alike, 2.5 mil to drill a well with only 15% royalty.Eagleford1.2 mil per well to drill with 900 mil barrels to expoit. Sleeping giant$80k to drill for very low cost drill, very profitable. Also have 1.5 mil acres in Canning Basin. Cash 10 mil Poster: V8 (STT Accuracy: 26.7% - Ranking No.20 ) Click Here for originating post
Pure TA pick this one, making its first Darvas Box today. Breakaway gap, golden cross preceding the perfect flag setup - notice the perfect drop in volume, playing out just like at TA school. Notice the doji today, if a green candle opens tomorrow it's in for a run. Poster: RainMakerFaker (STT Accuracy: 12.5% - Ranking No.23 ) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$27m)
BLK - Gold and Coal in WA,
20/11/2013
Tightly held stock with not a lot of free floating shares. Currently down from ~30% from 12 month highs with no negative change in fundamentals and on low volumes. Any buying activity at all will nearly instantly see the price back to 12 month highs ($12,000 would take out the entire sell queue at the time of typing) Poster: Andyk_79 (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post