just try the maths above, you dont get 30 pc............we know how much the cap value is,,,,,,,,,and we know how much the debt/ overdrafts are,,,one divided by the other is nowhere near 30 pc, and infact its worse because the debts owed are in usd, and as the company borrowed at higher rates, as the aud falls, the amount owed in aussie dollar terms is rising,,,,,,the ampunt in monthly interest that must be paid is rising in aud terms,,,,that means its an even bigger drain on current cashflow
The company can offest this liability by increasing its margin or increasing its production,, or eaise equity,,,,they are attempting to increase its margins in the short term by slashing the cost side and mining stockpiles,,,,,but the cant go to zero and the huge ramp up expected after borrowing all this money has not eventuated......
If the aud falls to 80 cents,,,, the interest bill in aud on billions in debt increases significantly along with the drain on cashflow,,,,,,,,,,,,massive usd debt, the servicing of that debt against the backgroup of a trending lower gold price and a company racing to further slash is not a risk that should be ignored,,,,,,,,a new round of,,,its cheap, lets buy will be initiated over time while these metrics continue........the hundreds of millions of shares up high thought the same, its cheap, multi month, multi year lows, aud going to drop, massive reserves,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,and no doubt hope someone else thinks the same now so they can get out......
When the debt changes, when the prices clearly expand and are group cashflow positive in normal circumstances,,,,,,maybe then,,,,,,before that is just a high risk punt/ trade,,,,,,not an "investment" imo,,
,,its at 777 for a reason.....and its not just so many can suddenly say they found the bargain of the decade
Dont underestimate the size of the register and the huge losses being held from investors up high that thought the same things...
Im actually suprised it hasnt been formally downgraded again considering the pog aud, its debt and cashflow situation.......
Time will tell,,,,,,,,,place your bets now :)))))))
Anyhoo,,good luck
NCM Price at posting:
$7.77 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
