IMO if news bad (meaning no real improvement in production output) will be 25 cents tomorrow (35% probability), if production has gone backwards then 20 cents could trade (15% probability). If they have improved their run rate to 30-50% of nameplate then I think we see 33 cents (25% probability). If production run rate is anywhere above 50% then likely we move above 35 cents (15% probability). If on the off chance they confirm they will be at full run rate production during December then I think we could actually see 40 cents (10% probability).
Weighted average return = 25 * 0.35 + 20 * 0.15 + 33 * 0.25 + 35 * 0.15 + 40 * 0.10 = 29.25 cents (basically a little lower than we are trading today)
catalystic event tomorrow, page-6
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