buy side building, page-58

VBurg, welcome on the ACL roller coaster.

Alchemia have stated recently that a short term goal is to find a partner for HA, and they have been indicating that this is not far off. If a partner is found prior to trial results then it derisks the results as Alchemia should be given an upfront payment as part of the deal. How much, who knows...? In the past Alchemia have kept these things secret. They have a deal for their VAST technology with an upfront payment that was not disclosed, with the DR Reddys deal they had to pay Reddys back a 'certain amount' before profit was realised, again this figure was not made public. This trend makes me question the $5mill ACL are paying to improve the manufacturing process of Fonda, we have a dollar amount here but no real information on how "our" (as SHs and owners of the business) money is actually being used towards these improvements. In saying that I have faith in the CEO and company moving forward.

As for where the SP will go with a partner deal, my guess (as a long term holder since 2006), would be about 80c depending on upfront payment,. Alchemia are also talking about monetizing Fonda so could potentially sell it off. Although this would put a wedge of money in the bank (and a possible dividend), we would no doubt see the SP lower as the revenue stream would be gone. As far as SP improvements after that, positive results would see a great improvement to the price and how much increase would depend on how many weeks the progression free survival is. If we cracked 12 weeks we would see a great improvement but I think $3 to $4 is more likely on approval of HA by the FDA.

I think we are in for a very exciting 7 months and I hope like hell we get 8 weeks + PFS in the Phase III otherwise the divorce rate in Australia will go up remarkedly next year.

GL all.