LYC 0.39% $7.75 lynas rare earths limited

confidence shown at agm - calling your enemy, page-2

  1. 1,867 Posts.
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    I just came from the agm and really disappointed with what i heard.

    I dont care about the smsl sideshow they're irrelevant at this point. I went to hear confirmation of the ramp up.

    We were told as late as Oct to expect full ramp up in the Dec qtr with hints it could be anytime in in the qtr. On that basis it was clear their capital issues would be fine and the cash would start flowing as they can sell 11,000t.

    Today we've been advised that that full ramp up is now 1st qtr 2014. So the real news today is that ramp up is slower than expected.

    But they also didn't properly explain why that is the case. I got the impression that it wasn't just more time tiikering with pipes but that customer demand take up is sluggish and no need to rush the product out the door. Yes the chairman confirmed they can sell 11000t but that doesnt mean the rate of takeup will be as quick as lynas can produce.

    The money wont come back into lynas until the market believes they are producing 11kt at a profit. Whereas I previously thought that confirmation was imminent, thats been pushed back up to 3 months. Who knows if the full ramp wont be pushed out further in the new year.

    Forget about this stock until february now. Ill review buying more then, but expecting it to go lower in the meantime.
 
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