Hi nchardon2013,
"to what the next 12 months entail":
The best case:
a, With the banking support, HOG acquires a mid-sized Russia oil company/project in production with resource 200mmbbl-500mmbbl. (production 800-1200bbl+/d)
MC $100m (at least)
b, Remain Ukraine assets/production, pumped back to 800-1000boe/d for more than 6 month then 600boe/d until 2017. & Got JVP to co-develop Ukraine gas assets (especially for the 193 BCF recoverable gas)
MC $30m+
c, Win the Myanmar off-shore project with the Norway energy Giant--prepare 2D or 3D seismic---seeking Cooperation with Chinese partner
MC $20m+
(c is exactly like what NEN did.)
a+b+c= $150 million, say issue 50% shares to acquire the Russia project (cash + shares) I work out 150/40= 37c+/share
Normal case:
1, b+c only $50m+/287= 17c+ per share
2, b only $30m/287= 10.5c per share
Worst case:
no a,b,c HOG devest all of Ukraine gas assets including production well($7-8m), gas plant $2m, newly acquired 193bcf tenement($2.6m) for $12m cash +2m cash in hand=$14m
=5c per share.
then seeking new projects.
My conclution: in next 12 month, 5c--37c the year high must be in this range, it depends on how these projects going of course. the average 21c/share is my 10 month trading target, it's also why I listed 10 bagger potential since 1st, Dec 2013.
whatever happen, I wonot sell 1 share befor Oct, 2014, but still waiting for topping up opportunity.
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