Stu - put 5 geos in a room with the public data- and you'll get five different answers - and they'll probably all be wrong to some degree.
The test is the definitive moment though. NEN will have matched the geological data from the well (i.e. the stratigraphy) with the seismic, but they still will not know whether the well will flow or what it will flow (i.e. CO2 content if any).
Clearly the JV thinks it has a good chance and will have some emperical evidence - otherwise they wouldn't move to testing - but declaration of commerciality is a little way off yet.
After flow rates are achieved (which may be limited by test equipment on the rig) and gas composition is confirmed, then at least we know we have a producable resource, although still may be questions on commerciality (dependent on rates etc.)
Keep all the fingers and toes crossed for a bit longer!!
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