"To apply caution to all cities/ regions/ markets is pure folly and bad advice."
sorry, rubbish.
In a share market boom in the last of a bull cycle - you can get in near the top and if you are quick of foot you can get out without being devastated ------------ IF you are lucky and IF you have a crystal ball.
What are the similarities with property --------
one, there are individual good shares -------- like property = but in a downturn of global proportions ALL suffer BADLY --
would someone think they could pick a winner in the 1929 crash?
Only the brave or the stupid.
Now, how is property dissimilar?
Easy ----------- if you get a massive global downturn -------
YOU CAN'T get out ----------- even if you had a crystal ball.
There just won't be any buyers -- the banks shut up shop.
So ---------- if, and yes it is an if -------- you indeed knew you were going to have a global smash - say next June --
with unknown consequences for any nation --------- would one be wise to take a 'punt' on investing in a large potentially very illiquid investment that you HAD to have employment to cover the mortgage AND you had to have tenants to also pay part of that mortgage and costs now?
I don't care a hoot where the property is ---------- the chances of financial devastation are very very high.
In that case -- general caution is not only wise - but the only logical way.
Facts ------------ we are in totally uncharted economic territory. The USA and Europe are in dire trouble.
If they do stumble badly - and there IS a high risk of that then China could also be in dire trouble.
If those do happen and they are highly possible and many think probable then Australia will be hit by a river of poo that cannot be imagined.
If one if young --------- the risk of losing a great deal from waiting for a few years is basically NOTHING.
The risk of going in now is HIGH.
For people who think I am talking crap --------- well, instead of committing yourselves to hundreds of thousands of dollars of investment in an already high priced sector -- I would suggest spending a couple of grand and doing a trip to the USA and some of Europe and seeing just how the world actually is rather than second guessing from our safe looking little coocoon here.
Anyone who thinks the gfc is finished and we are risk free is in lala land.
This is Australia - the land of the tooth fairy ------- never forget, we live our lives at the whim of the rest of the world - and we have been bloody lucky so far.
The game is very different now and the dice are loaded.
We 'might' be ok - I am not game to predict the future - but, we also might have the mother of all poo storms.
In the light of that and a completely unknown outcome - why the hell would anyone sane take a punt - especially on an already inflated industry?
