a couple of questions...., page-69

I think you can be forgiven for that petrovski, as most people were expecting an announcement on the Cua Lo-1 well which is situated within Block 105. Instead, we got the results from Ca Ngu-1 which is situated within Block 120. At an estimate, I'd say we'll get some results from Block 105 including commentary on the week beginning the 13th of Jan (if not earlier). I wouldn't set your expectations too high as the programme has yet to 'hit' a milestone-date, but as I understand it they should be able to progress unimpeded from now on.

In terms of the Ca Ngu-1 (Block 120) announcement made on Tuesday the 31st, it was clearly not what the market wanted to see. But don't confuse the reaction with a complete failure scenario - refer to announcement, re "technical success". We need the JV to process what they have from the collected, and then integrated data. It will also take the market some time to digest this information.

Historically, a number of large prospects were identified on Block 120 however with the relatively recent 3D seismic shoot Ca Ngu-1 was high graded and chosen based on the highest chance of success (CoS). Its really important to understand that CoS calculations are often impacted by previous drills. Depending on the model used and other geological inputs preceding wells and results can heavily influence CoS but also drilling strategy. I'd say this is what occurred during the prospect prioritisation.

Like Cua Lo-1 in Block 105, the drilling strategy would already be mapped out. i.e when the commercial announcement on Cua Lo-1 is made/confirmed, it will set the path for the follow-up drill. E&P companies use complex decision tree process modelling to guide them in advance. Basically, the JV will know what to do next (which is appraise Lead 5). The same logic will apply at Ca Ngu-1.

Ca Ngu-1 was termed - in advance - as a "play finder". If we overlay this with the model I mentioned earlier it means that regardless of the outcome (commercial discovery or not), the resulting data will determine next steps. At a high-level, if the data says: light charge (HC shows), good rock, good seal the model may indicate to drill Rua Bien. Worst case, it may say stop. The models are complex and are based on probabilities, geo-physics, EMV/NPV cals. However it all boils down to; what have we learnt from the latest data? Its possible that the model - if Ca Ngu-1 had been declared commercial - could have indicated to drill Ca Lang, the other prospect.

All of this stuff will happen in the background. It will be announced after the Cua lo-1 production results and other North American operational updates. Its going to be a busy year with more wells producing from our various fields, production increases, CR, new shareholder groups, potential PVn back-in, takeover offers etc, etc.