i can see clearly, now...., page-27

Hey Ausheds..

I believe that the SP right now must hold all available information on that stock because to say otherwise means that a stock is mispriced which just cannot happen given the number of people playing in the market, the diversity of views and information sources used to value the SP.

So the timeframe is not where it is at. If there was information that stated that RE prices were to be at X in 3 months time then that information has been absorbed my the market and the stock will be valued accordingly.

If a new to world piece of information becomes available that adds (or subtracts) value from one of the fundamental elements used by the market to value a share then the market will quickly adjust so that the stock is accurately priced.

Ie. If earnings of 50c a share were announced then buyers would find the current price cheap and bid up until the point that that information was priced in relative to the fundamentals and the market.

What we try to do is to project an if - then analysis on the price to predict potential future values that make the price now either a bargain or overweight.

These if - then views are supported by information however we must also apply a risk / likelihood of that outcome eventuating.

ie. IF the sale price is $30/ kg and IF our COP is $15/kg and production was at 700T for december THEN the value add per share would be $x and the share price should respond by going up/down by $X.

So we are engaged in speculation when we take a view of a future state or we place a price on an unknown with the view to forming a prediction, its all based on assumptions.

SO when LYC says they will reach nameplate this Q a lot of players in this space both professional and retail look at it and each applies their value and trade based on that information.

Price adjusts accordingly.

So timeframes are not real are they?? Its our guesstimate of how that fundamental information affects the shareprice NOW that matters.

Because the SP now is what really matter because its real.

I think at some point in the future this is a $10 share. WHEN that will happen I cannot say for sure but I believe it to be true.

Next 6 months can;t see it happening.

Doesn't mean it can't happen, just means that the likelihood is low.

What matters then is the information that is NOT assimilated in the marketplace, the little surprises that give the SP a shock.

SO while many are whingeing about the company not being forthcoming with information every 30sec, in reality it is these pieces of information on the near time horizon that matter in the ST.

And I think there is stuff going on that in the next 6 months will provide some SP shocks in the positive direction.

The price is always what the market values it at with all available information taken into account.

If anyone had information that was not available then the market would know about it as soon as they start to trade on it, its all in the price..